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Friday, August 29, 2008

The Sky's the Limit




Apparently China will build up to 50,000 skyscrapers in the next 20 years, the equivalent of 10 New Yorks, creating sustained long-term demand for steel and other raw materials.

You probably already knew that last week the Federal Government approved Chinese State-backed aluminium company Chinalco to hold as much as 14.99% of Rio's London shares - equivalent to 11% of Rio's combined Australian and London equities.

What you may not know is that business analysts around the world are not entirely convinced about the quality of Rio's aluminium business. In fact the value of Rio's aluminium business may even be devaluing the entire company in the face of the BHP-Billiton hostile take-over attempt.

In English?

If successful, BHP-Billiton may just off-load the aluminium division to a suitable global minerals player ... maybe to a company that could level a few of the take-over/regulatory hurdles ... perhaps a company called Chinalco!

I'm keen to see where all this leads in the long term. My severely uneducated take on this is that BHP-Billiton would be keen to grab Rio's iron-ore related businesses and probably even Rio's uranium business, but to placate China they would jettison the aluminium portfolio to Chinalco and Alcoa.

Of course, I have been known to be wrong on the odd ocassion ... actually on nearly every ocassion.

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