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Monday, February 4, 2008

你好,你笨澳洲人屁股

Or translated...

'Hello, you stupid Aussie arseholes.'

Okay, so we were wrong. China's RIO investment didn't send RIO stock sky high. In fact the shares topped out at just over $130 a share then settled back near opening price. A long way off our predicted $138. Thank god we don't play the stock market.

This whole China interest in RIO is probably proving to be a slight shock for Paul Skinner (RTA Chairman) and Tom Albanese (CEO). Though BHP will be feeling the pinch a little bit more.

The two companies probably weren't expecting to see China pop up this late in the takeover game. Which proves the Chinese are canny investors. And if RIO and BHP think that China is simply after a blocking stake or an investment opportunity then they would be fools.

Ever heard of Australia's Future Fund?

We copped a whole load of press coverage over the sale of Telstra a few years back and what would happen to the cash proceeds. Well, that cash was part of the Future Fund - a 50 billion dollar bank balance that would allow Australia to venture overseas in search of suitable investments. So far we've done stuff all on that front. The Chinese, on the other hand, are being a little more proactive.

China has a Sovereign Wealth Fund that is topped up by the interest earned on their vast national reserves of foreign exchage.

Ie; the Chinese have so much US dollars that they could buy every single public company listed in America.

I shit you not.

What does a powerhouse like China do with that money? Well, you open up the purse strings to your many state-owned companies (Chinalco, Chalco etc) to invest in overseas companies (RIO, BHP etc). If foreign ownership regulations can be smoothed over in Australia, Europe and America then China won't have the issues it had in trying to buy Unocal in the US. Once ironed out China will have every opportunity to not only take a larger stake in RIO, but they could probably choose to wait for BHP to swallow RIO. That then leaves the possibility of China devouring a new BHP. The fact that no one else has money in a global credit crunch simply plays into China's hand.

Fantasy land?

We'll see.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Interesting read on Mr Xiao - the new face of Chinalco. http://business.smh.com.au/meet-the-inscrutable-mr-xiao/20080204-1q26.html